US, Philippines rethink anti-terror tactics

Asia Times 

By Fabio Scarpello

ZAMBOANGA CITY - A decade after United States troops landed to support the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) fight against the small, but tenacious, terrorist-cum-criminal Abu Sayyaf group in the south of the country, limited achievements have prompted a rethink to the AFP's approach.

Washington worried that the island of Mindanao, and particularly the adjacent and remote Sulu Archipelago where the Abu Sayyaf maintains jungle bases, could become a safe haven for jihadi cadre who fled Afghanistan after the 2002 US-led invasion. The US declared Southeast Asia as the ''second front'' in its global ''war on terror'' campaign, with a strong focus on the Philippines.

United States-Philippine military cooperation currently takes place under the so-called Visiting Forces Agreement, signed in 1998. As early as 2002, at least 1,300 US military personnel were providing support to the AFP in the Abu Sayyaf's stronghold of Basilan as part of Operation Balikatan. The role of the US is restricted to non-combat operations, despite offers from Washington of more direct involvement.

Since August 2006, the bilateral cooperation has worked under the codename Operation Ultimatum, which aims to eliminate the Abu Sayyaf's threat through the ramped up deployment of roughly 7,000 government troops. Although weakened and partly leaderless, the group has proved surprisingly resilient. There are indications that it is gaining strength again through a string of successful kidnappings and terror bombings since the last quarter of 2009.

Lieutenant General Ben Dolorfino, commander of the Western Mindanao Command (WESTMINCOM) based in Zamboanga City and largely responsible for combating the Abu Sayyaf, said in an interview, "The Abu Sayyaf has been militarily contained, but the threat remains." He said that this theater in the "war on terror" could not be won with only guns ablaze.

Although the Abu Sayyaf's numbers are reduced, local conditions meant that the group - better considered a collection of several autonomous gangs - could always lure new recruits. Dolorfino, the most senior Muslim general in the AFP, noted that the Sulu Archipelago was among the poorest regions of the Philippines.

According to the Philippine Human Development Report, Sulu, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi, the three provinces that comprise the Sulu Archipelago, rank among the bottom five provinces in the country in terms of the Human Development Index, a measure of basic needs such as health, education and livelihood. "They can recruit because the area is extremely poor and they offer material inducements," said Dolorfino.

At its peak, the Abu Sayyaf was estimated to have more than 1,200 members. According to recent military intelligence cited by Dolorfino, the number was down to 390 as of December 2009. The figure, however, increased to 445 by April 2010, according to a report on CTC Sentinel by Rommel Banlaoi, the executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research.

Abu Sayyaf ''leaders have mastered the skills of conniving with ordinary criminal groups in their operational areas to mount kidnapping and other criminal activities," the report said.

Dolorfino said that in response the AFP has adopted a more comprehensive civil-military approach to counter the threat. He metaphorically likened the Abu Sayyaf to a tree with the branches and leaves representing different groups and their members, and the roots the multi-dimensional causes of their struggle. "Military force can only go as far as cutting the branches and removing the leaves, but unless you eliminate the roots, new branches and leaves will grow with time," he said.

"We are embarking on a campaign design that has an operational mix of 20% intelligence-driven combat operations and 80% civil-military operations and nation building. This is complemented with non-military operations such as legal warfare, information operation and counter-organization."

Dolorfino said this new approach was being implemented in tandem with the US, which has deployed some 600 troops (mostly marines) to WESTMINCOM as part of the so-called Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Most US operatives are now situated in the Sulu Archipelago, he said.

Dolorfino said that increased civil-military operations now include infrastructure projects such as the building of schools, potable water supplies and roads. "When people start seeing development, then they will start siding with the government," he said.

Dolorfino claimed military operations against the Abu Sayyaf were now more intelligence-driven and carried out strictly with the welfare of the local citizens in mind. "One thing that we want to avoid for sure is large-scale military operations that lead to large displacements of people. Those are counter-productive," he added.

According to the National Disaster Coordination Council, in late April 16,620 people in Basilan and 9,463 in Sulu left their homes in the wake of intensified fighting between troops and rebels. Abu Sayyaf rebels are often concealed in the local population, which was evident when nearly 500 families fled their homes in Basilan when police and military forces began combing the jungles of Sumisip and nearby towns in early June.

Despite official talk of hearts and minds campaigns, the deployment of an additional 700 Philippine Marines and Ranger Scouts, as well as a naval task force, in March to reinforce existing troops in Sulu indicates that the military component of the AFP's counter-insurgency campaign is still considerable. WESTMINCOM is the larger of the two commands based in Mindanao, with some 15,000 personnel divided between the army's 1st Infantry Division, three Marine Corps battalions and army Special Forces detachments.

Alih Aiyub, a representative of the Silsilah Dialogue Movement, a group that promotes inter-religious understanding in Mindanao and Sulu, said that he had not yet seen signs of change in the negative perceptions that locals generally have about the military presence. "But the fact that the military acknowledges that there is need for a change and for cooperation with civil society is a positive sign."

Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for Adnkronos International.

Danish MP to face charges over anti-Muslim comments

 Middle East Online

COPENHAGEN - The Danish parliament voted Wednesday to remove a far-right politician's immunity from prosecution so he can face charges over anti-Muslim comments, parliamentary sources said.

Jesper Langballe, a veteran member of the Danish People's Party (PPD), a crucial ally of the centre-right government, wrote in a newspaper column published in January that "Muslims kill their daughters (over crimes of honour) and turn a blind eye while they are raped by their uncles".

The column, which discussed the status of women in Islam and the "Islamisation of Europe", triggered a political storm and his comments were condemned by Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen.

The Crown Prosecutor decided to pursue Langballe, on the grounds that his comments broke anti-racism laws, and sought the lifting of his parliamentary immunity.

The PPD, with the exception of Langballe, abstained from Wednesday's vote, split between a desire to respect the law and its opposition to the anti-racism provisions, which it says go against freedom of expression.

Langballe himself voted for the lifting of immunity, as he wishes to prove the truth of his comments in court, according to Danish parliamentary television.

The date of the trial has not been set.

Fears Kyrgyzstan death toll much higher than official line

 ABC

After days of ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan there are fears the number of dead may be much higher than the official toll of more than 190.

According to security officials in the country, the actual figure may be 10 times more.

The violence between ethnic Kyrgs and Uzbeks has eased, but now the challenge for governments on both sides of the border is to care for more than 100,000 refugees.

It is not a disaster yet but aid agencies say the sheer number of refugees now jammed into camps in Uzbekistan has far surpassed that country's ability to cope.

Pierre-Emmanuel Ducruet from the Red Cross is trying to coordinate aid delivery with Uzbekistan's government.

"They have some means, but their means are limited and the international aid is very much needed," he said.

"The conditions for the first days were acceptable but unfortunately since this situation is lasting, the refugees on the Uzbek side of the border need food, also drinkable water and shelter."

More than 100,000 refugees fill camps meant for half that number.

Almost all are ethnic Uzbeks who fled violent rampages by ethnic Kyrgs in the cities of Osh and Jalalabad in southern Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan's interim government has accused supporters of the former president, who was ousted in April, of sparking the violence.

United Nations Human Rights Commission spokesman Rupert Colville says there are signs the latest violence was not random.

"We heard basically similar things from a number of different sources that there were clear signs of orchestration, that it wasn't just some spontaneous inter-ethnic problem that flared up," he said.

Kyrgyzstan - a former Soviet republic - has called on Russia to send peacekeeping troops to help stabilise the country.

Moscow has been reluctant and together with other former Soviet states has offered only helicopters and trucks to help Kyrgyzstan's army.

Irina Zvyagilskaya from the Moscow Institute of Foreign Relations says there is a real threat the ethnic violence could morph into something much more dangerous.

"I'm talking about very bad scenario which we cannot exclude completely," she said.

"If, God forbid, there is a civil war, it will involve the north and the south of Kyrgyzstan because the main clans represent the south and the north.

"Without international assistance it might happen."

Russia may not want to wade into the middle of Kyrgyzstan's ethnic conflict. But if the violence does not stop, it may have no choice.

UK watchdog says teach sex to kids from age five

 Reuters

(Reuters) - Sex education should be taught to children from the age of five to give them the skills and confidence to delay sexual intimacy until they are ready, a British health watchdog said on Thursday.

Inadequate sex education at a young age is widely seen as contributing to Britain's steep rate of teenage conception, still amongst the highest in Europe despite a 13 percent fall over the past decade.

The latest guidance from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) is in draft form and will not be compulsory, but the agency said it expected local authorities and others to follow it.

NICE said school governors should ensure education about sex and relationships and alcohol starts in primary school, which British children attend from the age of five.

"Topics should be introduced and covered in a way that is appropriate to the maturity of pupils and is based on an understanding of their needs and is sensitive to diverse cultural, faith and family perspectives," it said.

For the youngest children, this would involve learning about the value of friendships and having respect for others.

"All children and young people are entitled to high-quality education about sex, relationships and alcohol to help them make responsible decisions and acquire the skills and confidence to delay sex until they are ready," NICE said.

It cited research from the UK Youth Parliament showing that 40 percent of young people rated their sex and relationships education in school as poor or very poor.

The previous Labour government, which was ousted in a general election last month, had drafted legislation to make sex education compulsory in primary and secondary schools but abandoned the provisions at the last minute.

Those proposals would also have removed the right of parents to withdraw children from sex education once they turned 15.

The changes had been fiercely criticized by anti-abortion and religious groups, who want more emphasis placed on encouraging abstinence from sex before marriage.

(Editing by Steve Addison)

Survey reveals depth of child crime

FT

More than twice as many children fell victim to crimes last year than adults, according to the first comprehensive survey of 10 to 15 year olds about their experience of violence and theft.

The provisional findings from the British Crime Survey, viewed by many statisticians as the most reliable indicator of crime trends, were seized on by the coalition government as lending credence to long-standing Conservative claims that violent offences in particular have been under-recorded.

Nick Herbert, the policing and criminal justice minister, said the new figures backed the Tory belief that previous measures – which excluded children – only offered “a partial or confused picture”. “However you look at these statistics, they reveal... that crime affecting young people is a serious problem,” he said.

The headline figures showed that as many as one in four children were a victim of theft or violence last year on a strict legal basis. However, Home Office statisticians pointed out that this included incidents such as children having their dinner money taken, pushing and shoving in the street and siblings breaking each others toys.

When stripping out such incidents – where the value of items stolen were low or the hurt caused was minor – to achieve a “normalised” figure, it was estimated that 14 per cent of children fell prey to theft and violence. Over the same period, only 6 per cent of adults were victims of similar personal crimes.

John Flatley, the report’s editor, said the study, based on interviews with 3,700 children confirmed what statisticians had suspected about youth crime. “We expected that children would have higher levels of victimisation than adults and that most of it would be dominated by low level violence and that the serious stuff is relatively rare.”

The study, which could be carried out every year, offers the first snapshot of British children’s experience of crime, though it excludes important areas such as domestic and sexual abuse, cyber bullying and drug use.

Successive home secretaries have been under pressure to make statistics available on child crime after a string of stabbings and shootings involving youth gangs, particularly in London.

The normalised figures showed 9.5 per cent of 10 to 15 year olds were victims of violence last year, though only 2.3 per cent were wounded. This compares to just 3 per cent of adults who suffered violent attacks last year, and just 1 per cent who were wounded.

The study also found, however, that many children did not preceive themselves as being victims of crime, even where the officials conducting the survey determined that offences had taken place. Only 6 per cent overall thought they had been the victim of a police recordable crime, with just 3 per cent thinking they had been victims of violence and 1 per cent wounding.

Global poll shows Muslims leery of US and Obama

AP

WASHINGTON — Muslims around the globe remain uneasy about the U.S. and are increasingly disenchanted with President Barack Obama, according to a poll that suggests his drive to improve relations with the Muslim world has had little impact.

Even so, the U.S. image is holding strong in many other countries and continues to be far better than it was during much of George W. Bush's presidency, according to the survey.

There is one glaring exception: Mexico, where 62 percent expressed favorable views of the U.S. just days before an Arizona law cracking down on illegal immigrants was signed in April, but only 44 percent did so afterward.

The findings by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, conducted in April and May in the United States and 21 other countries by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, come amid a global economic downturn and U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The poll has been measuring the views of people around the world since 2002.

Among the seven countries surveyed with substantial Muslim populations, the U.S. was seen favorably by just 17 percent in Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan and 21 percent in Jordan. The U.S.'s positive rating was 52 percent in Lebanon, 59 percent in Indonesia and 81 percent in Nigeria, where Muslims comprise about half the population.

None of those figures was an improvement from last year. There were slight dips in Jordan and in Indonesia, where Obama spent several years growing up. Egypt saw a 10-point drop, even though Obama gave a widely promoted June 2009 speech in Cairo aimed at reaching out to the Muslim world.

In all seven of those countries, the percentage of Muslims expressing confidence in Obama has also dropped since last year. Only in Nigeria and Indonesia do majorities of Muslims voice confidence in him; in Obama's worst showing, just 8 percent in Pakistan do.

The survey found that majorities of the public in Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Lebanon and Pakistan say the U.S. could someday be a military threat to their country.

"You get a sense of Muslim disappointment with Barack Obama," said Andy Kohut, the Pew president, who attributed it to discontent with U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and to expectations raised by Obama's Cairo speech.

The surveys were taken before Israel's deadly May 31 clash with a flotilla of boats trying to break the blockade of Hamas-controlled Gaza, which sparked widespread condemnation of Israel.

In the rest of the world, the U.S. and Obama generally fare better.

The 6 in 10 in Germany and Spain who view the U.S. favorably has doubled from the lows reached under Bush. The U.S. image is also significantly better than it was under Bush in Russia, China, France, Argentina, South Korea and Japan. Obama is broadly supported, but the percentages expressing confidence in him have ebbed in 14 countries polled.

In only five countries do majorities think the U.S. considers other nations when setting its foreign policy. Support for U.S. anti-terrorism efforts and Obama's handling of economic problems is generally strong, but there is significant opposition to American involvement in Afghanistan and little faith that a stable government will emerge in Iraq.

The poll also found that:

In the seven Muslim nations polled, the portion of Muslims saying suicide attacks are sometimes justified ranged from 39 percent in Lebanon to 5 percent in Turkey. Nowhere did Muslims give majority support to Osama bin Laden or his al-Qaida terrorist group.

_In every nation but Poland, China and Brazil, most are unhappy with how things are going in their country, though dissatisfaction has grown in only three countries in the past year. Attitudes about each country's economic situation are similarly negative, though a bit brighter than a year ago.

Nine in 10 Chinese are happy with their country's economy, by far the highest mark of any nation polled. China is seen more positively than negatively in 15 countries, and in eight countries China is viewed as the world's leading economic power — up from two who said so last year.

Only in Pakistan does a majority favor Iran having nuclear weapons. In most countries, economic sanctions against Iran's nuclear program get higher support than military action. But significant numbers are prepared for a showdown: In 16 countries, more people who oppose Iran's nuclear program consider stopping Tehran from getting such weapons more important than avoiding a military conflict.

More people in every country except Egypt and Jordan said the environment should be a priority, even at the cost of economic growth and jobs. But only in nine countries are half or more willing to pay higher prices to address global warming.

Three-fourths of Brazilians say their team will win this year's World Cup soccer tournament, easily the most confident showing of the countries polled. Just 13 percent of Americans picked the U.S.

The Pew Global Attitudes Project was conducted by the Pew Research Center in 22 countries from April 7 through May 8, though the exact dates varied by country. Interviews were mostly conducted face-to-face, though telephone interviews were used in the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Spain and Japan.

Sample sizes ranged from 700 people in Japan to 3,262 in China. National samples were used in all countries except China, India and Pakistan, where those interviewed were disproportionately urban. The margin of sampling error ranged from plus or minus 2.5 percentage points in China to 5 points in Germany.
___
Online:

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press: http://www.people-press.org

U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan

 NYT

WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.

The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists. The Afghan government and President Hamid Karzai were recently briefed, American officials said.

While it could take many years to develop a mining industry, the potential is so great that officials and executives in the industry believe it could attract heavy investment even before mines are profitable, providing the possibility of jobs that could distract from generations of war.

“There is stunning potential here,” Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of the United States Central Command, said in an interview on Saturday. “There are a lot of ifs, of course, but I think potentially it is hugely significant.”

The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size of Afghanistan’s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the United States and other industrialized countries. Afghanistan’s gross domestic product is only about $12 billion.

“This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy,” said Jalil Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines.

American and Afghan officials agreed to discuss the mineral discoveries at a difficult moment in the war in Afghanistan. The American-led offensive in Marja in southern Afghanistan has achieved only limited gains. Meanwhile, charges of corruption and favoritism continue to plague the Karzai government, and Mr. Karzai seems increasingly embittered toward the White House.

So the Obama administration is hungry for some positive news to come out of Afghanistan. Yet the American officials also recognize that the mineral discoveries will almost certainly have a double-edged impact.

Instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the country.

The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources. Just last year, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine. The minister has since been replaced.

Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts. Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious challenge.

“No one has tested that law; no one knows how it will stand up in a fight between the central government and the provinces,” observed Paul A. Brinkley, deputy undersecretary of defense for business and leader of the Pentagon team that discovered the deposits.

At the same time, American officials fear resource-hungry China will try to dominate the development of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, which could upset the United States, given its heavy investment in the region. After winning the bid for its Aynak copper mine in Logar Province, China clearly wants more, American officials said.

Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection either. “The big question is, can this be developed in a responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially responsible?” Mr. Brinkley said. “No one knows how this will work.”

With virtually no mining industry or infrastructure in place today, it will take decades for Afghanistan to exploit its mineral wealth fully. “This is a country that has no mining culture,” said Jack Medlin, a geologist in the United States Geological Survey’s international affairs program. “They’ve had some small artisanal mines, but now there could be some very, very large mines that will require more than just a gold pan.”

The mineral deposits are scattered throughout the country, including in the southern and eastern regions along the border with Pakistan that have had some of the most intense combat in the American-led war against the Taliban insurgency.

The Pentagon task force has already started trying to help the Afghans set up a system to deal with mineral development. International accounting firms that have expertise in mining contracts have been hired to consult with the Afghan Ministry of Mines, and technical data is being prepared to turn over to multinational mining companies and other potential foreign investors. The Pentagon is helping Afghan officials arrange to start seeking bids on mineral rights by next fall, officials said.

“The Ministry of Mines is not ready to handle this,” Mr. Brinkley said. “We are trying to help them get ready.”

Like much of the recent history of the country, the story of the discovery of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth is one of missed opportunities and the distractions of war.

In 2004, American geologists, sent to Afghanistan as part of a broader reconstruction effort, stumbled across an intriguing series of old charts and data at the library of the Afghan Geological Survey in Kabul that hinted at major mineral deposits in the country. They soon learned that the data had been collected by Soviet mining experts during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, but cast aside when the Soviets withdrew in 1989.

During the chaos of the 1990s, when Afghanistan was mired in civil war and later ruled by the Taliban, a small group of Afghan geologists protected the charts by taking them home, and returned them to the Geological Survey’s library only after the American invasion and the ouster of the Taliban in 2001.

“There were maps, but the development did not take place, because you had 30 to 35 years of war,” said Ahmad Hujabre, an Afghan engineer who worked for the Ministry of Mines in the 1970s.

Armed with the old Russian charts, the United States Geological Survey began a series of aerial surveys of Afghanistan’s mineral resources in 2006, using advanced gravity and magnetic measuring equipment attached to an old Navy Orion P-3 aircraft that flew over about 70 percent of the country.

The data from those flights was so promising that in 2007, the geologists returned for an even more sophisticated study, using an old British bomber equipped with instruments that offered a three-dimensional profile of mineral deposits below the earth’s surface. It was the most comprehensive geologic survey of Afghanistan ever conducted.

The handful of American geologists who pored over the new data said the results were astonishing.

But the results gathered dust for two more years, ignored by officials in both the American and Afghan governments. In 2009, a Pentagon task force that had created business development programs in Iraq was transferred to Afghanistan, and came upon the geological data. Until then, no one besides the geologists had bothered to look at the information — and no one had sought to translate the technical data to measure the potential economic value of the mineral deposits.

Soon, the Pentagon business development task force brought in teams of American mining experts to validate the survey’s findings, and then briefed Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Mr. Karzai.

So far, the biggest mineral deposits discovered are of iron and copper, and the quantities are large enough to make Afghanistan a major world producer of both, United States officials said. Other finds include large deposits of niobium, a soft metal used in producing superconducting steel, rare earth elements and large gold deposits in Pashtun areas of southern Afghanistan.

Just this month, American geologists working with the Pentagon team have been conducting ground surveys on dry salt lakes in western Afghanistan where they believe there are large deposits of lithium. Pentagon officials said that their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni Province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large of those of Bolivia, which now has the world’s largest known lithium reserves.

For the geologists who are now scouring some of the most remote stretches of Afghanistan to complete the technical studies necessary before the international bidding process is begun, there is a growing sense that they are in the midst of one of the great discoveries of their careers.

“On the ground, it’s very, very, promising,” Mr. Medlin said. “Actually, it’s pretty amazing.”