By Fabio Scarpello
ZAMBOANGA CITY - A decade after United States troops landed to support the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) fight against the small, but tenacious, terrorist-cum-criminal Abu Sayyaf group in the south of the country, limited achievements have prompted a rethink to the AFP's approach.
Washington worried that the island of Mindanao, and particularly the adjacent and remote Sulu Archipelago where the Abu Sayyaf maintains jungle bases, could become a safe haven for jihadi cadre who fled Afghanistan after the 2002 US-led invasion. The US declared Southeast Asia as the ''second front'' in its global ''war on terror'' campaign, with a strong focus on the Philippines.
United States-Philippine military cooperation currently takes place under the so-called Visiting Forces Agreement, signed in 1998. As early as 2002, at least 1,300 US military personnel were providing support to the AFP in the Abu Sayyaf's stronghold of Basilan as part of Operation Balikatan. The role of the US is restricted to non-combat operations, despite offers from Washington of more direct involvement.
Since August 2006, the bilateral cooperation has worked under the codename Operation Ultimatum, which aims to eliminate the Abu Sayyaf's threat through the ramped up deployment of roughly 7,000 government troops. Although weakened and partly leaderless, the group has proved surprisingly resilient. There are indications that it is gaining strength again through a string of successful kidnappings and terror bombings since the last quarter of 2009.
Lieutenant General Ben Dolorfino, commander of the Western Mindanao Command (WESTMINCOM) based in Zamboanga City and largely responsible for combating the Abu Sayyaf, said in an interview, "The Abu Sayyaf has been militarily contained, but the threat remains." He said that this theater in the "war on terror" could not be won with only guns ablaze.
Although the Abu Sayyaf's numbers are reduced, local conditions meant that the group - better considered a collection of several autonomous gangs - could always lure new recruits. Dolorfino, the most senior Muslim general in the AFP, noted that the Sulu Archipelago was among the poorest regions of the Philippines.
According to the Philippine Human Development Report, Sulu, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi, the three provinces that comprise the Sulu Archipelago, rank among the bottom five provinces in the country in terms of the Human Development Index, a measure of basic needs such as health, education and livelihood. "They can recruit because the area is extremely poor and they offer material inducements," said Dolorfino.
At its peak, the Abu Sayyaf was estimated to have more than 1,200 members. According to recent military intelligence cited by Dolorfino, the number was down to 390 as of December 2009. The figure, however, increased to 445 by April 2010, according to a report on CTC Sentinel by Rommel Banlaoi, the executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research.
Abu Sayyaf ''leaders have mastered the skills of conniving with ordinary criminal groups in their operational areas to mount kidnapping and other criminal activities," the report said.
Dolorfino said that in response the AFP has adopted a more comprehensive civil-military approach to counter the threat. He metaphorically likened the Abu Sayyaf to a tree with the branches and leaves representing different groups and their members, and the roots the multi-dimensional causes of their struggle. "Military force can only go as far as cutting the branches and removing the leaves, but unless you eliminate the roots, new branches and leaves will grow with time," he said.
"We are embarking on a campaign design that has an operational mix of 20% intelligence-driven combat operations and 80% civil-military operations and nation building. This is complemented with non-military operations such as legal warfare, information operation and counter-organization."
Dolorfino said this new approach was being implemented in tandem with the US, which has deployed some 600 troops (mostly marines) to WESTMINCOM as part of the so-called Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines. Most US operatives are now situated in the Sulu Archipelago, he said.
Dolorfino said that increased civil-military operations now include infrastructure projects such as the building of schools, potable water supplies and roads. "When people start seeing development, then they will start siding with the government," he said.
Dolorfino claimed military operations against the Abu Sayyaf were now more intelligence-driven and carried out strictly with the welfare of the local citizens in mind. "One thing that we want to avoid for sure is large-scale military operations that lead to large displacements of people. Those are counter-productive," he added.
According to the National Disaster Coordination Council, in late April 16,620 people in Basilan and 9,463 in Sulu left their homes in the wake of intensified fighting between troops and rebels. Abu Sayyaf rebels are often concealed in the local population, which was evident when nearly 500 families fled their homes in Basilan when police and military forces began combing the jungles of Sumisip and nearby towns in early June.
Despite official talk of hearts and minds campaigns, the deployment of an additional 700 Philippine Marines and Ranger Scouts, as well as a naval task force, in March to reinforce existing troops in Sulu indicates that the military component of the AFP's counter-insurgency campaign is still considerable. WESTMINCOM is the larger of the two commands based in Mindanao, with some 15,000 personnel divided between the army's 1st Infantry Division, three Marine Corps battalions and army Special Forces detachments.
Alih Aiyub, a representative of the Silsilah Dialogue Movement, a group that promotes inter-religious understanding in Mindanao and Sulu, said that he had not yet seen signs of change in the negative perceptions that locals generally have about the military presence. "But the fact that the military acknowledges that there is need for a change and for cooperation with civil society is a positive sign."
Fabio Scarpello is the Southeast Asia correspondent for Adnkronos International.
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